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The mood in the field continues to be excited, balanced configuration to static braking; The proportion of financing balance of new energy vehicles has risen, and the follow-up space is more sufficient. 1. The mood on the floor continues to be excited, balanced configuration to static braking. Monday's market turbulence was stronger, especially the small and medium-sized board index, which is more concentrated in the concept of new energy vehicles, rose by 1.19% throughout the day, higher than the GEM index (+0.59%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.33%), and the more weighted Shanghai and Shenzhen 3000 index fell 0.01%. In terms of industries, non-ferrous metals, electrical equipment and automobiles rose the most, while medicine, biology, real estate and non-bank finance fell sharply. The two cities traded 589.8 billion yuan throughout the day, still at a high level.
Driven by the new energy vehicle sector, market sentiment continues to be excited, yesterday the three major stock index futures have turned into a state of premium, the futures point is higher than the spot, showing that the futures market investors on the large, medium and small cap view of the future have turned optimistic, it can be seen that the market sentiment has turned to the "economy + regulation" double optimistic combination mentioned in our Monday morning report. We believe that the economic stabilization will continue, and the policy protection will continue at least until the end of the party Congress.
The market will not remain in A double-optimistic state of excitement for a long time, and the next evolution of the market state will face two scenarios: one scenario is to attract incremental funds to enter the market after the market is strong and improve the A-share market capital state, and the other scenario is to re-enter the shrinkage cooling process after the enthusiasm of the stock capital environment.
In the current emotion-driven stage, we recommend not to predict the incremental capital market, but to balance the allocation to static braking, specific industry structure, the balanced allocation is reflected in the current consumer and financial sector in the depression has a better relative cost performance. Under the cautious assumption, the market wing will complete the rebalancing process of transaction distribution under the stock capital market, and the distribution of transaction will be more balanced among the plates. Under the positive assumption, the incremental capital market corresponds to the plate rotation under the general rising market.
2. The proportion of financing balance of new energy vehicles has risen, and the follow-up space is more sufficient. After the vice minister of industry and Information technology said over the weekend that China has started the study of the production and sale schedule of traditional energy vehicles, the new energy vehicle-related plates, from upstream raw materials to downstream vehicle manufacturing stocks, rose sharply on Monday. As the main incremental source of the recent market, the two financing funds, we can observe the future space of the market through the change of the financing balance of the new energy vehicle related sectors.
We select the constituent stocks of Wind new energy Vehicle index and lithium battery index, then extract the stocks that have been able to do financing transactions since 2015, select the stocks with high correlation with the trend of new energy vehicles or lithium battery index, and divide the financing balance of these stocks by the current market financing balance. To represent the participation of the two financing funds in the new energy vehicle market. From 2015 to June 2016, the participation of the two financing maintained an upward trend, and leveraged funds have been increasing the layout of new energy vehicles, and then from June 2016 to June 2017, leveraged funds began to gradually withdraw. The financing balance of new energy vehicles/market financing balance has fallen from the highest of more than 3.4% to near 2.4%. Recently, the balance of financing of new energy vehicles began to return to the upward trend, and there is still some space from the top of the previous period, and it also leaves room for the follow-up market of new energy vehicles.
[Northeast Solid Income Liu Lixi/Zhang Liang] Brief comment on the Central bank's adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to zero: The momentum of rapid appreciation of the renminbi or delay. Event: The Central bank issued a document (Yinfa [2017] No. 207) to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve policy, and from September 11, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio was adjusted from 20% to 0%.
This time, the central bank reduced the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to 0%, indicating that the central bank has achieved initial results on the RMB exchange rate control, and has increased confidence in the future exchange rate control, so it will no longer set up foreign exchange risk reserves. On the one hand, since May this year, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has continued to decline, from 6.8930 in early May to 6.4877 in early September, down 5.88%, the depreciation pressure of the RMB has rapidly weakened, and the central bank's concern about the uncontrolled RMB has also diminished. On the other hand, from the August import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs today, the total export growth of 5.5%, two consecutive months of decline. The excessive appreciation of RMB is unfavorable to promoting China's export. (Northeast Securities)
